Posner, Kenneth A. <br/><br/>
Stalking the black swan :  research and decision-making in a world of extreme volatility / 
Kenneth A. Posner. 
 - New York :  Columbia University Press,  c2010. 
 - xv, 267 p. :  ill. ;  24 cm. 
 - Columbia Business School Publishing .
<br/><br/>
<br/><br/>Forecasting in extreme environments -- Thinking in probabilities -- The balance between over- and under-confidence, and the special risk of complex modeling -- Fighting information overload with strategy -- Making decisions in real time: how to update a thesis for new information, without falling victim to cognitive dissonance -- Mitigating information asymmetry -- Mapping from simple ideas to complex analysis -- The power and pitfalls of Monte Carlo modeling -- Judgment. 
<br/><br/><label>ISBN: </label>9780231150484 (cloth : alk. paper) 9780231521673 (ebook) 
<br/><br/><label>LCCN: </label>2009041215 
<br/><br/><label>Subjects--Topical Terms: </label><br/>Investment analysis.<br/>Investments--Forecasting.<br/>Business cycles.<br/>Recessions.
<br/><br/><label>Dewey Class. No.: </label>332.63/2042