Cover; Title; Copyright; Dedication; Contents; Introduction: risk and the Cold War/post-Cold War divide; 1 Risk in International Relations and foreign policy; Risk in the post-Cold War world: from sociology to International Relations; Risk and decision-making: the laboratory of decision theory and the world of foreign policy; Conclusion; 2 A new framework: risk vs. risk trade-offs, crises and International Relations; Risk, uncertainty and risk management: a foreign policy perspective; Uncertainty, risk and risk management: towards operational definitions. Presidential decision-making and 'risk vs. risk trade-offs'The risk vs. risk trade-off framework and presidential decision-making in foreign policy: connections and contributions; Countervailing risks, uncertainty and foreign policy crises; Rethinking the Cold War/post-Cold War divide; 3 'I should have said that we don't care:' the Kennedy Administration and Cuba, 1961-1962; The Eisenhower Administration, American decline and 'their man' in Havana; The Kennedy Administration and Cuba: from the campaign trail to the Missile Crisis; Conclusion. 4 'We are sticking with the Shah': the Carter Administration and Iran, 1977-1979Nixon to Ford: the new Cold War, the loss of certainties and the US man in Tehran; Iranian revolution and American risk management: from early commitments to the final tragedy; Conclusion; 5 'Why is this happening and we are not doing anything?': the Clinton Administration and the risky road to Srebrenica, 1992-1995; The new game: the end of the Cold War and George H.W. Bush's legacy; Clinton and Bosnia: a candidate's freebie, a president's nightmare; Conclusion; Conclusion. Risk and risk management in foreign policyPropositions and foreign policy crises; Risk, uncertainty and risk management: rethinking sociological approaches and decision theory; Risk, uncertainty and risk management: crisis, foreign policy decision-making and 'risk-superior' moves; Continuity for continuity's sake?; Bibliography; Index.

This book aims at gauging whether the nature of US foreign policy decision-making has changed after the Cold War as radically as a large body of literature seems to suggest, and develops a new framework to interpret presidential decision-making in foreign policy. It locates the study of risk in US foreign policy in a wider intellectual landscape that draws on contemporary debates in historiography, international relations and Presidential studies.