Stalking the black swan : research and decision-making in a world of extreme volatility /
By: Posner, Kenneth A
Material type: BookSeries: Publisher: New York : Columbia University Press, c2010.Description: xv, 267 p. : ill. ; 24 cm.ISBN: 9780231150484 (cloth : alk. paper); 9780231521673 (ebook)Subject(s): Investment analysis | Investments -- Forecasting | Business cycles | RecessionsDDC classification: 332.63/2042 Online resources: Location MapItem type | Home library | Call number | Status | Date due | Barcode | Item holds |
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REGULAR | University of Wollongong in Dubai Main Collection | 332.632042 PO ST (Browse shelf) | Available | T0043511 |
Total holds: 0
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Forecasting in extreme environments -- Thinking in probabilities -- The balance between over- and under-confidence, and the special risk of complex modeling -- Fighting information overload with strategy -- Making decisions in real time: how to update a thesis for new information, without falling victim to cognitive dissonance -- Mitigating information asymmetry -- Mapping from simple ideas to complex analysis -- The power and pitfalls of Monte Carlo modeling -- Judgment.