Includes bibliographical references and index.

Forecasting in extreme environments -- Thinking in probabilities -- The balance between over- and under-confidence, and the special risk of complex modeling -- Fighting information overload with strategy -- Making decisions in real time: how to update a thesis for new information, without falling victim to cognitive dissonance -- Mitigating information asymmetry -- Mapping from simple ideas to complex analysis -- The power and pitfalls of Monte Carlo modeling -- Judgment.